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The crisis in the US housing and financial markets, already spreading to Germany and Japan, is not expected to have a serious impact in Costa Rica, experts said this week.
Despite concerns with a record number of Americans set to lose their homes to foreclosure and house prices getting lower all the time, the general consensus is those buying in Costa Rica are not likely be greatly affected.
“I am under the impression that the foreign investor that comes to invest here in Costa Rica is precisely that type of investor that already has enough buying power, and has already resolved his housing situation and has come here to have a beach home, or a home in the mountains,” Finance Minister Guillermo Zúñiga told The Beach Times in a phone interview Wednesday.
“That is not the investor that would be affected by this situation.”
Should the current woes compound as far as to “affect the dynamism of the North American economy, and the real economy,” Mr Zuñiga said, “this could have an impact on the demand for our products, and that would have an effect.”
The problem, say economists, began with what are known as sub-prime loans — loans given to people who have poor credit. Many of those loans are adjustable rate, meaning the lender can change the interest rate. As those rates have climbed in recent years, many borrowers have been unable to meet payments, defaulted, and left the banks holding property, rather than money.
The business of repackaging debt to be traded in financial markets has meant the problem has had a wider effect, and the lack of payments has caused a shortage of money in the system, leading to a “credit crunch” and making it hard for some to get loans.
However, Mr Zúñiga says there are no signs that Costa Rica is, or will be hurt by these problems.
“I would not expect changes in what is happening in our country,” he said. “The foundation of our economy is solid, and the financial situation is very solid.”
In the first three months of 2007, mostly American foreign investors and homebuyers bought at least $192 million worth of property, largely in the provinces of Guanacaste and Puntarenas, according to Costa Rica’s Central Bank. That is nearly triple the $70 million registered in the same period in 2006.
Mario Solano, a Central Bank economist that worked on the estimate and tracks foreign investment in Costa Rica, said this week that the bank had not yet studied whether the crisis was affecting the country, but said, “Costa Rica could be affected, but not in the short term.”
The US Embassy also said it had no information on the possible effects in Costa Rica.
“I think the state of the US housing market will have an affect on others, but it has not been felt yet in Costa Rica,” said Ana Saboría, CEO of the Guanacaste tourism development, Reserva Conchal. “I don’t think it will be as radical an affect as in the United States. I don’t think it will reach the point where it is a pricing issue.
“It will probably mean that people will have to go for quality in their buildings, to make sure they can make a difference. If, as a developer, you don’t start with a base, with a large base and a good product, then you might have trouble,” she added.
Cynthia Durán, president of the Costa Rican Global Association of Realtors, said: “Right now, it is difficult to measure how it is affecting Costa Rica, because we are in the low season, and we know that, with the lower tourism that comes in during these months, sales fall.”
“We have been analyzing this a lot, and we have to give it a few months so that we can compare this low season to last year,” she said.
Long-time Guanacaste realtor Les Nunez, who leads regular seminars at the Association of Residents of Costa Rica, said he recently asked an audience if anybody had been affected by the crisis. Nobody said they had.
“The scuttlebutt amongst us area realtors is if its going to effect us we haven’t really seen it yet. Is it going to trickle down? I imagine to some degree,” Mr Nunez said.
“If the thing sneezes we catch cold. But if their market gets decimated, maybe five or ten out of a hundred won’t be able to come down here and do what they want to do.”
Antonio Echeverría, a Loan Officer with Banco Improsa, and who formerly ran his own Mortgage Broker service, said he believed the slumping market in the United States is already driving US lenders to Costa Rica.
“The housing market in the United States has fallen and financial companies are coming here. It’s not a prediction, it’s a fact,” he said.
Other effects could be that in the Costa Rican economy, interest rates are falling and becoming more and more attractive.
“Banks are offering very low interest rates due to the high volume of real estate and construction in the country. With the arrival of gringo companies, it will be even more competitive,” he said.
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